Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Timing the market!

I have been following the capital markets for some time now and I am glad that I started investing right at the beginning of the recession. Like many, I lost some money but what I gained was precious. This kind of market pattern occurs once in decades and I was lucky to witness; invest; and learn from it.

Jumping in a train in smartness but jumping in front of it is foolishness!

The S&P 500 is nearly up 35% from its March lows and many believe that everything is back to normal; just like many believed that the world is coming to an end when S&P was below 700. This kind of optimism or pessimism is the first sign that the market will turn the corners.

S&P is currently trading at ~18X PE, which I think is too bullish and requires a correction for this rally to be real. I think that the S&P will not cross 950 in this rally!!! Get ready for a sharp pull back (S&P around 820-840); we have gone up too far and too quickly. That will be a good opportunity to buy for a long term as things are not as bad as many feared.

Trades for pull back:

S&P 500 June 85 Puts.
FAZ - 3X Financial Bear
Sell covered Call Options to protect your investment in financial which have seen a great rally.

If you have not invested in the market then stay on the sidelines and wait for pullback!!

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